Exploring the Relationship Between Annual Rainfall Variability and Selected Urban Crop Output in Jos Metropolis

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between annual rainfall variability and the output of three key urban crops, maize, tomato and potato, in Jos Metropolis, Nigeria, from 2012 to 2023. The study utilized rainfall data from 1994 to 2023 and crop yield data from 2012 to 2023. Using Pearson correlation and linear regression, the analysis assessed the degree to which annual rainfall influenced crop yields. Results revealed significant fluctuations in rainfall over the years, with the highest level recorded in 2019 and the lowest in 2007. However, statistical analysis showed weak and insignificant correlations between rainfall and the output of maize (r = 0.012), tomato (r = 0.146) and potato (r = 0.151). Despite these fluctuations, maize and tomato yields showed a steady increase, suggesting that improvements in farming practices, access to better seeds and small-scale irrigation may have offset the effects of rainfall variability. Potato output experienced a dip due to late blight disease between 2013 and 2017 and then showed a sharp recovery. The findings demonstrate that while rainfall plays a role in crop productivity, other factors such as soil quality, pest control and adaptive techniques are equally important. The study highlights the importance of climate-smart agriculture, effective water management and targeted government support. It recommends investment in urban farming infrastructure, improved weather forecasting and farmer training to build resilience and ensure sustainable food production in Jos Metropolis.